Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 0.032472 0.036979 0.041910 0.047710 0.054352 0.061726 0.070544
2025-01-26 0.026054 0.032327 0.039822 0.049457 0.061546 0.076252 0.095559
2025-02-02 0.022678 0.029810 0.038852 0.051201 0.067693 0.089055 0.118978
2025-02-09 0.020309 0.027983 0.038197 0.052856 0.073469 0.101594 0.143174
2025-02-16 0.017869 0.025628 0.036393 0.052514 0.076210 0.110027 0.162418
2025-02-23 0.016110 0.023947 0.035232 0.052788 0.079646 0.119562 0.184081
2025-03-02 0.014408 0.022118 0.033596 0.052080 0.081398 0.126606 0.202563
2025-03-09 0.013397 0.021197 0.033178 0.053108 0.085820 0.138052 0.229099
2025-03-16 0.012184 0.019817 0.031883 0.052560 0.087581 0.145330 0.249474
2025-03-23 0.011583 0.019349 0.031970 0.054235 0.093115 0.159273 0.282620
2025-03-30 0.010414 0.017818 0.030154 0.052490 0.092585 0.162771 0.297638
2025-04-06 0.009564 0.016744 0.028997 0.051747 0.093688 0.169152 0.318467
2025-04-13 0.008582 0.015366 0.027217 0.049770 0.092450 0.171345 0.332027
2025-04-20 0.008282 0.015182 0.027537 0.051662 0.098593 0.187859 0.375307
2025-04-27 0.007995 0.014990 0.027813 0.053483 0.104761 0.205017 0.421863
2025-05-04 0.007717 0.014785 0.028039 0.055215 0.110911 0.222743 0.471670
2025-05-11 0.007206 0.014083 0.027252 0.054857 0.112787 0.232009 0.504549
2025-05-18 0.006816 0.013584 0.026810 0.055144 0.116006 0.244348 0.545565
2025-05-25 0.006350 0.012888 0.025916 0.054403 0.116955 0.251932 0.576740
2025-06-01 0.006108 0.012631 0.025885 0.055479 0.121942 0.268781 0.631314
2025-06-08 0.005726 0.012047 0.025127 0.054906 0.123197 0.277428 0.667436
2025-06-15 0.005584 0.011962 0.025411 0.056658 0.129904 0.299174 0.738110
2025-06-22 0.005144 0.011194 0.024164 0.054832 0.128107 0.300883 0.758878